17/10/09 Welcome Cupid

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17/10/09 Welcome Cupid

Post  HiArt on Sun Oct 18, 2009 5:35 am

looks like similar to what I've been looking for. Sorry though, can you
confirm - you're laying OVER 1.5 goals not laying UNDER 1.5 goals?

Yep, Lay OVER, this effectively backs 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1. Another approach we are playing with is to dutch these three scores and save some commission.

And one last silly question before I get down to some hard work on this: Why bother with laying 0-0 h/t? ...

If the score is 2-0 ( or 0-2 or 1-1, etc) after, say, 20 minutes (and this does happen) I think both bets would be full loses. Even 1 early goal will kill the FT bet and keep the 1.5 bet odds very low for a long time (much longer than out current vulnerability of 10 minutes). We would probably want to re-examine our entry criteria and look for matches with a low probability of goals.

The lay HT allows us to make a profit with a first half goal. Or, if there isn't a first half goal, allows the FT odds to drop sufficiently for us to make a profit from the second half. Remember, the entry criteria seeks to find matches with a high probability of goals. If you look at the results (on the forum), you will see that we are getting a very high hit rate of matches done and dusted by HT.

Art

-----Original Message-----
From: Andy Rotchell [mailto:a.rotchell@ntlworld.com]
Sent: 17 October 2009 22:35
To: Alan Murrell; Arthur Ockwell
Cc: Kevin Van Vreckem; Peter Scott; Richard King; Ali Martin
Subject: Re: Welcome Cupid!

looks like similar to what I've been looking for. Sorry though, can you
confirm - you're laying OVER 1.5 goals not laying UNDER 1.5 goals?

And one last silly question before I get down to some hard work on this: Why
bother with laying 0-0 h/t? Why not just back 0-0 f/t and lay -1.5 goals
before kick off? There will be chances to green either one, the other or
both during the game and we then don't have to worry about making up the lay
0-0 h/t losses at all at half time.

Feel free to shoot me down in flames!

----- Original Message -----
From: "Alan Murrell" <silkbc@yahoo.com>
To: "Andy Rotchell" <a.rotchell@ntlworld.com>; "Arthur Ockwell"
<arthur_ockwell@hotmail.com>
Cc: "Kevin Van Vreckem" <kvvwebdesign@gmail.com>; "Peter Scott"
<runnymede98@yahoo.co.uk>; "Richard King" <richardflats@googlemail.com>;
"Ali Martin" <jackie-tazbar@blueyonder.co.uk>
Sent: Saturday, October 17, 2009 4:47 PM
Subject: Re: Welcome Cupid!


Hi Andy.


>I must confess to two things: I only have Excel on
>my laptop which packed in a few weeks ago and I'm crap with spreadsheets!
>What
>are the rules for the half time bet if it is still 0-0? It looks like
>you're
>covering all scorelines on c/s market...?

In a round-about way. We are laying Over 1.5 goals if it is still 0-0 at
HT. This is technically the same as backing 0-0, 0-1, and 1-0, so I am sure
it can be done on the CS market. I am playing around with some different
scenarios to see what the best way to do this would be.

>I see too you have an offending period before 55
>mins where a goal can kill off profits. Have you looked at putting a small
>bet
>on this time period pre kick off in the first goal time odds market or does
>this
>take too much profit?

I think that would take too much profit, but I would have to see what the
odds are in a few games. If the initial lay on the HT 0-0 is $100 then we
are making $12 after commission if there is a goal in the first half, so
there isn't that much profit to work with, but worth consideration, I think.

-Alan



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