7/10/09 08:27 - Journal of a live game using the system.

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7/10/09 08:27 - Journal of a live game using the system.

Post  HiArt on Fri Oct 09, 2009 12:19 am

Spekkles,

Part of the the problem arose from " Half time score nil nil. Lay £8.30 FT nil nil at 4.8". You should not have done that Smile


Laid £10.00 HT nil nil @ 3.30 and 3.40 = liability £23.79 Back £8.30 FT nil nil @ 14.5

At HT Lay Under 1.5 @ 1.81 for £69.17 on my sheet.

We are in a world of pain if the score finishes 1-0 or 0-1, -£88.12.
The back Under1.5 bet is something like £230 for the late goal, which is fine for 1-0 and 0-1 but now Over1.5 loses £200!

Humph.

I think we might need to investigate the Next Goal market. It would be interesting to know at what point this touches, say 1.3. If it did this before the 1st goal and we layed £100 (arbitrary figure for sake of argument) ...

0-0 wins 2.23
1-0 wins 6.89
0-1 wins 6.89
>1.5 wins 128.62

If we can get this after the first goal, 0-0 is dead but the other profits remain!

If a second goal goes in before we reach this price, job done anyways!

So Bet 3 isn't Back Under1.5, it is Lay the Next Goal at a certain price. Even if the score remain 1-0 or 0-1, the Next Goal market will move in our direction as the game get near FT. If there is a second goal before we get our price, then we win anyways!

Interesting no?

I'll play with these figures a little bit more, but I think we are still on to something!

Art

HiArt
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