7/10/09 02:58 - Journal of a live game using the system.

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7/10/09 02:58 - Journal of a live game using the system.

Post  HiArt on Fri Oct 09, 2009 12:18 am

If you dont know the score of this game - makes interesting reading!!!

Portuguesa v Sao Caeteano late game on Tuesday night.

A journal of using the system during a live match - mediocre market £80,000 matched in Match odds market.
May not be ideal for our purposes, but going to give it a try anyway, as the system needs to be tested in all kinds of games.



Just notes of prices etc that am laying/backing etc.

I have altered the spreadsheet for £10.00 stakes (bit reluctant to go higher until we have thoroughly tested this on various scenarios)

Laid £10.00 HT nil nil @ 3.30 and 3.40 = liability £23.79 Back £8.30 FT nil nil @ 14.5

Half time score nil nil.

Lay £8.30 FT nil nil at 4.8

This leaves £80.51 in the CS nil nil market.

Lay under 1.5 goals for £67.25 @ 1.81 (spreadsheet worked out the amount at that price) = liability £57.16

Worst case scenarios going through my mind at the moment.
Score stays nil nil - I lose £23.79 plus £67.25 = £91.04 but will collect £80.51 less commission on nil nil Overall loss £10.53 Hoping for goal reasonably early in second half to see if can back the
under1.5
Do not want goal in the last 5 minutes (although would be interesting to see what price over 1.5 goals went to)


Second half starting now.......

51 minutes - prices under 1.5 goals 1.64 / 1.74

55 minutes - 3 players now sent off (2 from home team) (49th, 53rd and 55th minutes)

60 minutes prices under 1.5 goals 1.39 / 1.58..........over 1.5 goals
2.86 / 3.35
CS market nil nil now 3.05 / 3.35

70 mins - a 4th player sent off - now 9 a side!
CS nil nil now 2.1 / 2.2
Under 1.5 goals 1.17 / 1.32.............over 1.5 goals 5.2 / 5.9

78 mins - goal for away team.
Over 1.5 goals now trading at 1.4 - 1.6
No way out of trouble here - my only hope is a 2nd goal - high probablility of losing £91.04.

85 mins - 5th player sent off - home team is down to 8 men, and losing 1
- 0.

86 mins - GOAL!!! (am happy to see this one go in!) - now 1 - 1.

Ended up profit of £42.91.

Very fortunate - quite a nerve racking experience! Glad I changed the stake to £10.00.

I hope the above will highlight some of the possible pitfalls, and show some tweaking needs to be done.
Also an exit strategy.
On the 84th minute, I could have backed under 1.5 goals at 1.48 which would have cut down my possible losses by 50%.
Came very close to doing this, but thought - in for a penny, in for a pound.

Game over.

Any questions about it, just email me

Spekkles
Ali

PS.......the final score was 1 - 1.

HiArt
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