06/10/09 14;55 - Stats

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06/10/09 14;55 - Stats

Post  HiArt on Fri Oct 09, 2009 12:10 am

Hi Guys,
Statistical Analysis
Firstly, it is NOT necessary to use the Over/Under1.5 market at all. Rich has pointed out we can replicate it by dutch laying in the CS market. In fact that’s very easy as there will only be one score to lay – either 1-0 or 0-1. Confirms we are on the right track IMO.
Ali has pointed out that he feels laying at 1.2 will be difficult if a goal is scored early in the second half as there will be plenty of time for further goals. I kinda agree, but I kinda disagree.
I think we need to concentrate on good quality matches as these will have plenty of liquidity. As I said before in last night’s Villa Game the first goal was at 30 minutes and the over 1.5 odds dropped to 1.26 immediately. The 1-0 CS will have done the same (pure market), but inevitably there will be games where we will stand to make a loss. I would suggest we just have to take this, but should limit it by placing our lay bet outside the money (i.e. at 1.30?) to ensure a match.
The interesting bit:
Over 100 games:
70% of games have a goal in first half: Profit of 95 – 83 = 12 x 70 = 840
8% of Games end 0-0: Profit of 56 = 56 x 8 = 448
Of the remaining 22%:
11% match at 30: loss of 11 = - 11 x 11 = -121
11% match at 1.21 or lower: Profit of 6 or more = 6 x 11 = 66
So over 100 games we should have:
Profit = 840 + 448 – 121 + 66 = 1233 to stakes of 100 lay, 83 back.
So let's hope it works.
Pete

HiArt
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